There still is no traditional T in place, as I view equities. The GLD T continues on, and has another week to run.

Percentage Change on Major Asset Classes:

Asset	This Week	Prior Week	Month	YTD
SPX	0.39	2.29	3.63	10.1
TLT	0.68	1.12	1.48	-3.74
IWM	2.55	1.57	4.17	5.02
GLD	2.68	0.32	9.23	4.8
GDX	6.82	0.97	22.63	1.93
QQQ	-0.53	3.01	2.14	8.58

Last week I suggested that IWM may have bottomed in its ratio to SPY, and that appears to have been the case. Over the last week, this ratio moved from 39.3 to 40.01. There is strong resistance ahead. Should we see a break above 40.75, IWM may have bottomed in this ratio. It now has 2 higher lows from the November low.

This reversal in IWM’s performance vs. SPY may continue to have legs. Keep in mind that in a positive environment such as we have now, IWM can continue to outperform SPY by moving higher. If the environment changes, IWM can still outperform SPY by moving lower more slowly than SPY.

I don’t post the IWM Companion Chart on my site, but here are the present parameters for support and resistance:

I have pointed out before that in a positive environment, RSI can remain above 50, and this is true on the above chart as well. I suggest that both IWM and SPY conform to the same pattern on the Simple versus Complex Structure chart, and they are both living in a Complex positive structure. There were 2 recent attempts to have this chart move the Volume Oscillator below the zero line, and they both failed.

The Simple Chart, and the $BPSPX are not displaying any stress. At this point, I am expecting the BPSPX to move above the upper Keltner and then below it before we top out.

Watch the Gold Miners $BPGDM chart on my site for a reversal below the upper Keltner band, which would indicate an overbought condition in miners.

Have a great weekend.

There is still no equity T, and the likelihood of one forming soon is not in the cards. But while there has been no T in equities, we have reached a new high in the SPX. There will be a time when it is clear that the trend is over. Right now, I can only suggest that the first crack is about 2% below us. The Two Percent Solution is to watch how Price reacts to support, with that important support 2% below us.

Percentage Change on Major Asset Classes:

Asset	Month	Week	YTD
SPX	2.89	2.29	9.74
TLT	1.78	1.12	-4.35
IWM	3.08	1.57	2.43
GLD	6.82	0.32	4.8
GDX	13.15	0.97	-4.55
QQQ	2.03	3.01	9.15

Looking at SPX on an hourly basis, there is support at 5190, using the standard 55 Optimum Moving Average Keltner chart:

MACD has crossed negatively, and RSI and MFI are trying to recover from an overbought situation, while still remaining above their neutral levels. (Disregard the time stamp on the above chart, as StockCharts is having some issues–the date is at the close of Friday, March 22 2024.)

Looking at the Hourly Volume Oscillator, the $NYUD is approaching a level from which it should rally further, if Price is going to maintain its upward movement. Look for an initial move slightly lower on the VO, to be followed by a recovery. If Price starts to break down after the VO recovers, that will be a sign of future problems.

Another chart to watch at this point is the Simple vs Complex Structure chart. The present structure is a Complex Bullish one, and will remain so until the VO crosses the zero line. (It will be adjusted Monday to closer match the McOsci.)

On the SPX daily chart basis, we have moved below the upper Keltner on the Bull run “NDX” version of the Companion Chart. As I’ve noted, while this shorter period Optimum Moving Average of 35 has contained the upper region of this chart as resistance, the 20 EMA has been extremely important support since the beginning of this year. First support is 5140, less than 2% below where we are today. Secondary support is 5076. On the normal Companion Chart, support is at 4995.

Last week I discussed the GLD T that I saw as ending. While we did have a major spike on Wednesday, GLD managed only a slight increase for the week. That being said, it is still holding the 55 EMA.

The potential for this to extend until April 7 still exists, unless we break decisively below the middle Keltner. I have withdrawn from this T.

I have one last item to discuss. In the past, I have looked at the IWM/SPY ratio, and considered using IWM as a way to short equities versus SPY. In late 2020, I became a fan of IWM vs SPY as the ratio passed 47%. My long term chart (and posts on elliottwavetrader,net) regarding this ratio reflected that I maintained this belief for about a year, after which I began once again using it as a hedged short vs SPY. The chart resides on the Revised chart web page as follows:

With the ratio this low, I don’t find that to be of value at this time. Let’s see if the higher lows can hold, even as the ratio continues to decrease:

I don’t like IWM, but I think that a review of its largest holdings in order:

What is holding IWM up?

Take care.

When there is no T, one needs to use other tools to make market decisions. We’ve had long stretches in the past where there were no equity T’s, and when we have such periods, choices must be made as to where we are. We look at other asset classes to see what could be developing. As I pointed out here a while ago, there is no equity T on the horizon. That didn’t mean equities would fall; it meant that we shouldn’t see periods of heightened strength. There are other tools on my website that offer relevant information, and I have to say that all measures of support have held since the end of the last T on January 26. We closed that T at 4900, and since then the market has followed a line that was impressively higher, adding 4%.

While I didn’t participate in that, I did manage to find a GLD T that offered a return of almost 7%. I closed that at 198, but closed the GDX trade I began at the same time way too early. Also, the initiation move I suggested in Bitcoin on February 7 seems to have been realized. I did sell my TLT and IEF, but as I never posted those sales, I’ll just say that I don’t own them at this time. I do still own SHY and shorter term Treasuries.

When I began the GLD trade on February 13, I noted in my post that it was only 1% away from major support. A few days later, I posted on elliottwavetrader.net that I foresaw an hourly T that should last until the beginning of April, with a short term T ending February 23. On February 23 we had a move down from the upper Keltner which held support.

GLD continued to move up, until it peaked above 203, and has now returned to its support line at 199.32

The above summarizes what was, and now it’s time to look at what may be.

While the trade I put on was based on an Hourly T, the chart shown above enlarges the view on a daily scale. That is one method to enter a longer term T near its low–find a short term T and then review how it can grow into a Daily, longer term one. Unfortunately, my personal point of view is that this T ends tomorrow. I have included a shorter term T that could end April 13, but I don’t believe that will be the future course.

Moving on to equities, I’ve made it clear that I don’t see a T being formed in the near future. However, the end of this week did change the future landscape a bit. We have finally broken the trend line of higher lows that has existed in the Volume Oscillator and McOsci since the middle of January:

Since the end of the last T, I have been pointing out that until there is a break of support, those invested in this asset class should be wary, but not panicky. If you have looked at my Revised Chart Page recently, you will see that I added a 2024 Bull Run Companion Chart. This chart uses the same Keltner Bands as the ones I use for NDX. They are based on the 35 EMA, rather than the 55 EMA that I have historically used. But it also uses an Optimum Moving Average of 20, rather than 35. You can see that the standard EMA of 20 has held any reversal in check since January, and that is now a number that can be used as the first line of support. I’ve pointed out in the past that in a strong market, one shouldn’t expect RSI to move below the midpoint of 50. That is another support level to keep an eye on. (I will keep this chart on my site until it no longer works, and I will then revert to the standard 55 EMA.)

While stocks are pricey, until support is broken, there is still underlying strength. Looking at the hourly Volume Oscillator chart (based on the MACD of $NYUD), we can see that there was impressive buying off the low on Friday:

Yes, we still are very overbought by traditional measures. Here is a look at the weekly Companion Chart, using Terry Laundry’s weekly Keltner bands mased on the EMA of 76:

But until we move below 5044, we still have support, just as we have support until the technical indicators move below their respective overbought positions.

Right now, the BPSPX and Simple chart are beginning to look weak, but haven’t fully developed negative outlooks. Watch these two charts, and keep an eye on the A/D line chart as it has begun to move down to the first level of support at 8090. With that said, I hope you’re looking at Price as the main component for future decisions.

While I’ve had little to say regarding standard T-Theory since the end of the T on January 26, I hope you’ve noticed that I have spoken of support, and percentages since then. We have lots of points, but only a few percentage points before we need to worry about a larger correction.

I have to put this in the perspective of two of my major prior equity calls. The November 2019 “Halloween” chart, that showed me the possibility of a massive move down in February 2020 also had a T ending in January 2020. That got me protective. The second call was at the end of the January T in 2022, which was followed by abreak of support at 4600 on SPX that stopped me out, and kept me safe on that move down while still being able to find short term T’s for the rest of the year. My point here is that I don’t need to get out of a market at a top tick–I’m preserving capital, with less risk than I would take if I had a longer time perspective. That may not be your case.

When descending and up trending lines converge, we get days like today.

I have also closed out my GLD trade from 184, which I started on February 12.

While this may continue through April, we are clearly overextended.

I’m on the road, and this may be all I write over the next 2 weeks. Posting from an iPad is not easy when I cut and paste charts.

Last week’s results:

Asset	Performance
SPX	+0.9%
IWM	+3.0%
QQQ	+2.0%
TLT	+1.0%
GLD	+2.3%

Take some “longer term” perspective looks over the past month:

Asset	Performance
SPX	+4.7%
IWM	+5.3%
QQQ	+5.6%
TLT	-3.5%
GLD	+1.3%

And now, since the October bottom (roughly, as I am using October 27):

Here’s the details since the beginning of 2022:

Asset	Performance
SPX	+7.1%
IWM	-5.9%
QQQ	+12.5%
TLT	-30.2%
GLD	+14,6%
GDX	-9.6%

I’m going to philosophize a bit here–What will it take to get investors to panic? a 5% correction? More? Of course, this is a generalist’s view of the market. I run with an older crowd who are practically all buy and hold, and have been HODL practitioners for years.

Why take the trouble to review the above? Because it’s important to know percentages. I’ve pointed out before that a 60 point move in SPX was almost 10% in 2009. Today it’s slightly more than a 1% move. We have Keltner bands that have us 80 points above the upper Keltner Band, 260 points above the Optimum Moving Average, and an additional 190 points below that to the lower Keltner band. I’m going to let you do the percentages on that.

As I posted earlier this week, we have a few more days inside of a Point of Recognition. The last one was good for a short blip down 100 points, but these are my “artistic” point of view. Buying volatility via straddles worked well on that last move.

Please disregard the last VO reading on the chart, which you will find on my Revised Chart Page as the Marked Volume Oscillator, as it won’t be updated until Monday.

While I haven’t done so yet, I’ll try to keep my notes on that chart page updated.

See you in a few weeks.

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