I started this site as a place to post my thoughts on T-Theory. I’ve tried to include the major concepts of Terry Laundry as I understand them. I can’t guarantee that I got them all, or even that I got them right.

For those who have followed this site for the last year, I’d like to say thank you for taking this journey with me. We’ve gotten through the worst of this crisis, and hopefully are coming out of it with only a few scars. Maintaining this site helped get me through the worst, but now it’s time to move on. I didn’t intend to begin a site to forecast the market, but rather one to review T-Theory methods.

The simplicity of T-Theory can’t be overstated. Posting more about it would attempt to do that. I’ll leave the menu and links to the charts for the next few weeks.

Stay safe.

While I do like waffles, I don’t like waffling. But tonight’s main T chart readings are enough to give me pause, and since I can’t look at the charts without being aware that some of you are looking at them too, I think we need to review how one day’s small movement in price has drastically changed the look of the main T chart. For one, the peak of this last move up is lower than the last peak. That is not a sign of strength, and it revokes what would have been the final confirmation of the T lasting through March 28. Terry’s rule was that the peak of the new high in the Volume Oscillator MUST be higher than the last peak before the VO went below the zero line. The last peak was at 49, and this peak has been revised down to 47. It no longer confirms a T through March 28. While the VO will most probably be refined tomorrow to show a higher close than it shows on today’s chart, the McOsci has moved close to the zero line. We need an up day on Wednesday to preserve a bullish outlook.

Looking at the new “complex and simple” structure chart, I did circle the peak last night in red, meaning that the structure was simple, or weaker than it should have been. We need to see price advance after this peak, and we also need to see the VO stay above the zero line. Which it presently does not.

The Bullish Percentage is still bullish.

The Simple chart is appears to be turning down in its Volume Momentum (bottom signal on the chart).

We have gone back within the confines of the “Spooky” Volume Oscillator chart. As I mentioned yesterday, the McOsci barely exceeded its lower high trendline. It appears that we are not done with this structure.

While we are still more than 100 points higher in the SPX than when I announced this T, it is no longer a comfortable position. Even though we are within the larger April 29 T, I can no longer promote a long position, as these shorter moves are getting more volatile. Staying safe has been a predominant theme of these posts, and that is what needs to be done now. While my outlook may change if the charts allow for a more bullish look, I am planning on locking in profits. I have already done so on the Exxon Oil T shown in the menu. (It will leave the menu after March 23.)

I am unsure of the direction we are going in, even though we are still in a bull market, with a longer term T ending at the end of April.

Stay safe. I’m in my bunker.

The T which I confirmed on March 9 continues to move forward and will last until March 28. This is still within the larger T that ends April 29.

The Bullish Percentage chart is in “hold longs” position. Let’s see if it can keep moving up, and get through that upper Keltner band. We want to see that, so that we have warning when it moves back below to remove longs.

The Simple Chart is not showing any weakness.

The Companion chart has room to move higher before it is overbought.

While the “Spooky” Chart has broken through on the long side, I’ve pointed out before that chart may not necessarily forecast disaster. It could break higher just as easily as it could break lower. As the main chart has been pointing higher, those following have been on the right side of this market.

There seems to be minimal stress. The McOscillator version of the Volume Oscillator is showing a much smaller high than the VO. Since the VO is based on MACD, it still gets adjusted over time, and the McOsci is not much higher than that trendline.

We’re over 110 points higher on SPX since the charts were updated to note the new T on the Live Chart. Ten years ago, 110 points were about 10%, now it’s just about 3%.

The good news is that I don’t get paid by the word, so brevity costs me nothing. But I will add one point. Right now, the TNX ten year has resistance at 1.69%. Should it pop above that, the next resistance is about 1.9%. That will be a short term problem for the Market should we see that, in my opinion. To be clear, equities have been able to rise with interest rates above 2% for decades. It is only the last 12 years that rates have been consistently below that. Sentiment may give a short term hit to the market if rates continue higher, but I believe it will be only short term.

Stay Safe.

I’m unable to further update charts till next week, but I hope readers noticed the T confirmation.

While we have all the makings of a T thru March 28, the McOsi has just hit the top of the trendline. We may have some consolidation soon. The Volume Oscillator will be adjusted tomorrow too.

The companion chart is not overbought. It has room to go higher.

The Bullish percentage is positive.

The simple chart is positive.

The McOsi hasn’t broken through the”Spooky” trendline.

Stay safe.

But the danger may have passed. We may have begun building a new T. I noted the possibility of this formation early last week on the Live T Chart, and I mentioned in reply to a question from Alchemist 3 days ago. The new short term T may last until March 15, should it be confirmed.

I may not be posting for the next two weeks. I will try to update the charts as needed.

Stay Safe…