Raising Stops

There still is no traditional T in place, as I view equities. The GLD T continues on, and has another week to run.

Percentage Change on Major Asset Classes:

Asset	This Week	Prior Week	Month	YTD
SPX	0.39	2.29	3.63	10.1
TLT	0.68	1.12	1.48	-3.74
IWM	2.55	1.57	4.17	5.02
GLD	2.68	0.32	9.23	4.8
GDX	6.82	0.97	22.63	1.93
QQQ	-0.53	3.01	2.14	8.58

Last week I suggested that IWM may have bottomed in its ratio to SPY, and that appears to have been the case. Over the last week, this ratio moved from 39.3 to 40.01. There is strong resistance ahead. Should we see a break above 40.75, IWM may have bottomed in this ratio. It now has 2 higher lows from the November low.

This reversal in IWM’s performance vs. SPY may continue to have legs. Keep in mind that in a positive environment such as we have now, IWM can continue to outperform SPY by moving higher. If the environment changes, IWM can still outperform SPY by moving lower more slowly than SPY.

I don’t post the IWM Companion Chart on my site, but here are the present parameters for support and resistance:

I have pointed out before that in a positive environment, RSI can remain above 50, and this is true on the above chart as well. I suggest that both IWM and SPY conform to the same pattern on the Simple versus Complex Structure chart, and they are both living in a Complex positive structure. There were 2 recent attempts to have this chart move the Volume Oscillator below the zero line, and they both failed.

The Simple Chart, and the $BPSPX are not displaying any stress. At this point, I am expecting the BPSPX to move above the upper Keltner and then below it before we top out.

Watch the Gold Miners $BPGDM chart on my site for a reversal below the upper Keltner band, which would indicate an overbought condition in miners.

Have a great weekend.