A Few Points to Make

I’m on the road, and this may be all I write over the next 2 weeks. Posting from an iPad is not easy when I cut and paste charts.

Last week’s results:

Asset	Performance
SPX	+0.9%
IWM	+3.0%
QQQ	+2.0%
TLT	+1.0%
GLD	+2.3%

Take some “longer term” perspective looks over the past month:

Asset	Performance
SPX	+4.7%
IWM	+5.3%
QQQ	+5.6%
TLT	-3.5%
GLD	+1.3%

And now, since the October bottom (roughly, as I am using October 27):

Here’s the details since the beginning of 2022:

Asset	Performance
SPX	+7.1%
IWM	-5.9%
QQQ	+12.5%
TLT	-30.2%
GLD	+14,6%
GDX	-9.6%

I’m going to philosophize a bit here–What will it take to get investors to panic? a 5% correction? More? Of course, this is a generalist’s view of the market. I run with an older crowd who are practically all buy and hold, and have been HODL practitioners for years.

Why take the trouble to review the above? Because it’s important to know percentages. I’ve pointed out before that a 60 point move in SPX was almost 10% in 2009. Today it’s slightly more than a 1% move. We have Keltner bands that have us 80 points above the upper Keltner Band, 260 points above the Optimum Moving Average, and an additional 190 points below that to the lower Keltner band. I’m going to let you do the percentages on that.

As I posted earlier this week, we have a few more days inside of a Point of Recognition. The last one was good for a short blip down 100 points, but these are my “artistic” point of view. Buying volatility via straddles worked well on that last move.

Please disregard the last VO reading on the chart, which you will find on my Revised Chart Page as the Marked Volume Oscillator, as it won’t be updated until Monday.

While I haven’t done so yet, I’ll try to keep my notes on that chart page updated.

See you in a few weeks.

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