We have regained the dashed green line in the T Theory Volume Oscillator chart. While we haven’t risen above the zero line, that should happen pretty soon. As noted in the header for this site, I am an old investor, and I am slowing down. But it’s important to watch for changes. Unless we break down here, there should be a new T that lasts through February 3. I am prepared to draw this new T on the chart should the VO move above the zero line. It will need a close above +45 to truly confirm. All of this is within the longer term T that lasts until April 29.

While all of this appears to be headed in a positive manner, we still have to deal with the end of strength period that is occurring now until the end of the January 6 T. We may have missed the entry that was handed to us on December 21 or there may still be another shakeout within the next 10 days.

On another note, Treasury prices appear to have a rising rate bias for the next 12 months. This T has a center point on May 25 of this year. When you have a double bottom, you split the time between those bottoms to create your T.

Earlier Ten year T’s were posted in Avi Gilburt’s elliottwavetrader website when they occurred.

The monthly MACD is about to cross on the following chart of 30 year bond futures. Those type of moves are infrequent, but important. This will leave nowhere to hide when the next financial crisis hits.

Stay safe, and happy holidays.

With the Volume Oscillator staying below the zero line for the last 2 days in a significant amount (easier to see in the purple McOsi portion of the chart), the January 6 T can effectively be called over early. This doesn’t mean that a period of weakness will begin–in fact, we have been in a period of weakening VO readings for a while, and we may be close to a bottom on that search for a floor. Right now, we have 42 days from the last peak on the VO, which should mean (at least) 42 days of strength lies somewhere ahead of us. We need to see if we can regain the dashed green support line that began in March.

I have added green dashed support lines to the ‘Simple Chart’.

The Companion Chart needs to move back above the red dashed support line as well.

Stay safe. Especially over the next few weeks. Happy Holidays.

I wasn’t planning on offering a post today, but the market move today was large enough to deserve one.

T’s are wonderful things when they work, but they need to be viewed with eyes open to changes in market conditions. The charts in the menu of this blog may be simple but they are the most important charts I look at. They are live charts, which means that they are available to be reviewed by all during the day.

Today the Companion Chart dipped below 3688, which was important support for the bull case. This trend line has consistently held as support during the latest moves up. We breached it by about 50 points today. The simple chart PMO still has a ways lower to go to reach the zero line, which would be where I’d like to see it before another strong move up. Bullish Percentage hit the mid Keltner, and we need to see if we break it.

My take is that we now know where a strong support zone exists, and while the market may take a few days to stabilize, it should be somewhere between today’s close and today’s low.

If today’s low on the VO holds (and we won’t know what that number is until tomorrow based on late information from StockCharts), we have moved down on the VO for 41 days, and should move up 41 days. That would be January 31.

How do we have T’s that end January 6, January 31, and April 29? Because these T’s will no longer be easy to buy and hold.

Stay Safe.

FWIW, I will be closing longs today. I am an old, conservative investor. Even though the T may last until January 6, I am willing to miss out on further upside as my comfort level has been breached over the last few days. I expect the VO to hit the zero line from below and fall. This will create a better buying opportunity in the future. Whether that is before January 6, I don’t know.

Yesterday, I became concerned with the following charts:

Bullish Percentage

The Simple Chart

The Confidence Index

For those with a higher risk tolerance, please do your own due diligence. I tend to leave the party early, as T’s can exhaust themselves early. I very rarely suffer FOMO, especially after a year like this. We’ve had more T’s than in normal years, and I managed to safely navigate February and March.

Best to your trading, and stay safe.

Yes, there is an ending to the T. The period of strength that began in March is officially over. It appears that the strength may have left a few days early.

This is the second T that I’ve followed since setting up the Optimum Moving Average for GBTC last December, and revising it in September. I’m still working on setting that OMA. I believe it is somewhere between 75 and 85 days, although this chart is based on 75. Note that the first T had a double bottom. I remember Terry Laundry used to pick somewhere in the center of those multi-bottoms as his T center point, similar to the middle of the letter W.

Can we rally from here? Yes, this is still a bullish looking chart. RSI and MFI might stabilize at 50. MACD just crossed negative, and has may travel lower. Considering that the price low today was 19.60–and the top of the inside envelope is 19.59–we may have hit at least temporary support. But the usual outlook for a move above the envelopes is to at least hit the bottom of the inside, grey band–as it did in the beginning of 2018 and November 2019.