I was too anxious for an entry below 3400 SPX. My stop was hit at the opening. While I had updated the stop in a comment to break even, the market opened 1% lower than that. For those who follow this blog, I apologize for my poor analysis. Expect the main T Theory chart to be corrected later today. The Bullish Percentage chart should have been my warning key yesterday.

T-Theory trades over the last year:

We have just reached the mid-Keltner bands. That is at 3377. It is a point of entry with a 1% stop. 3340.

Investment accounts are up over 200 SPX points since October 2. There is probably another 1% to go before a meaningful correction. That being said, I have removed those longs today. The risk reward is not favorable for me at this time. I do believe we will continue to rally, but a decent pullback is in order. If I were an Elliotician, I might be looking for a 1/3 pullback on this move. I would be satisfied with that.
This is not what I would call a T-Theory decision. But in the last year my use of the T-Theory chart has led to outsized gains. I’ve marked those periods of investment in the green boxes.

On the above chart you can see the end of the Volatility Event in February (that I started writing about a year ago), seeing its formation around Halloween of last year. It led me to safety in February. The other major theme of this year was the ‘coincidence’ of having a low every 60 days from June 2019 through June of this year. This June we had an expected inversion, because we were just too close to the upper Keltner band. And while the August 3 period wasn’t a major low, it was a low of sorts. As was October 2, after a true low 10 days earlier.

While the charts at the top of the menu page will remain active, I don’t expect to be posting much in the next few weeks. For those who want to continue to remain safe, I highly recommend a site run by Avi Gilburt, based on Elliott waves. Not only is the advice consistently clear, but I find he and his analysts truly care about the financial health of subscribers. It’s a wealth of knowledge, and I do post there as well. In fact, every post prior to 2020 (when I began this site) was posted on Avi’s site.

You can get a 2 week trial at elliottwavetrader.net

In the meantime, stay safe.

The BPSPX chart has gone into a swing long mode. The T chart I post is whispering. New T.

There is the possibility that we have a T with an ending date of Jan 6. The left side of this T is June 9, the center post is September 23, and the end date is January 6. 3-1/2 months of lower highs on the Volume Oscillator through Sept 23’s low. Add 106 days. (You may want to note that the dashed red line has been in many previous posts.)

As last week called for a Price T until October 16, we are on the “right” side of this T. Those who follow T theory as described by Terry Laundry will get the joke.

In spite of all the negativity thrown at the market yesterday, the McClellan Oscillator managed to move higher, as did the McClellan Summation Index. There is a price T through Oct 16.

There is no traditional T yet, as I expect the traditional Volume Oscillator to be revised lower as its update is usually delayed until the middle of the following trading day. Both the McOsi and VO are derivatives of Advancing and Declining Volumes. 

The traditional Presidential Election October chart is from the McClellan website. The results call for a low Oct 15 rather than a high. IF the market moves forcefully down Monday to create a lower low on the VO (which I doubt at this time), the T will turn bearish, calling for a low, a sharp rally, and a collapse on Oct 15. While this narrative may sound most likely theoretically, my charts are not showing that this is the preferred count at this time.