Since the end of the last (very short term) T on July 14, the SPX is 2% higher. TLT is up 2% as well. When there is no T, equities should not beat the return of the ten year bond, per Terry Laundry. So far that is the case. You can use this link to see the relative performance since July 14:

Asset class performance

One may want to note that hard assets like gold and real estate have performed better than equities or bonds. One of Terry Laundry’s last ‘predictions’ was that we are in a Gold mega T that began in 2000, and would last 20 years. That is this year. It appears we are seeing a blow off top, which is always the case on commodities. Until it completes.

Below, the hand-detailed Volume Oscillator is unmarked. My take on this is that we will have a low in September, or late August. This is just starting to bend lower. Remember that the Volume Oscillator is based on the MACD of Up and Down Volume. You can see the formula for the VO I have been using for years if you go to the T-Chart in the menu above.

Right now, the linked T Chart looks like this:

The Beige McOsi T will turn bearish if it goes below 45. The VO that I have been using for years would have to go below -165 to create a Bear T. That deep plunge at its end will be corrected in the live chart on Monday.

If you have been following this blog, you’re aware of the 2 month cycle that occurred from June 2019 through May 2020. There was a price low just around the 3rd day of every other month.

The inversion that occurred in June became evident Mid May. We weren’t going to get a buyable low in early June. In fact, as per the definition of inversion, we had a top a few days later, with a very short term T that followed–it ended July 13, at 3237.

The VO based on the standard chart in the menu breached the zero line at the end of that T, but minimally. It has not shown any indication of time for the next T. I think it will be more towards the middle to end of August. More soon.

While the Stockcharts T-Theory Volume Oscillator tried to get passed the zero line, it failed.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYUD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p18745313718&a=770278046

In fact, using my home-made version of the T Theory VO, we just had a short lived T that ended. Starting on June 8 and lasting through June 26, we had 18 days of cash buildup momentum from June 26, which ends July 14. Or today. This works well with my comment last week that if we did get a T out of the recent action, it would be short lived.

I suggest reviewing the main menu charts…

Sometimes news is good, sometimes it is bad. This is not a post about economic or a fundamental news, but rather one that is noting a lull in the action. The traditional Volume Oscillator is not showing that we are in a T at this time. Although there is the potential that we have begun one (if the VO passes the zero line and heads above +50), I’m not expecting that to occur. In any event, if that is the case the T will be short lived, lasting perhaps another 10 days.

The newer Oscillator I’ve begun to track has raised its head above the zero line. This is a learning, not teaching experiment for me. I began watching the McOsci in order to get an earlier handle on the most recent movement in the Volume Oscillator that I have been using for the last 8 years.

I am a conservative user of T Theory. I don’t have the background that Terry Laundry did–I was not a Marine, I am not a graduate of MIT. As I’ve grown older, I take less risk than I did before. And while I look at the market aching to get back in to a fully long position, I am following my rules. I will wait. I realize this short post may make some of you say “why am I reading this?” I can only answer by saying sticking to my rules on T creation has allowed me to participate in positive movements in the market over a long period of investing. I’ve done my share of risking everything in the past. I’ve still got that shrapnel. Don’t need to do that anymore.