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One of the main features of T-Theory is that it offers the ability to find low risk entries after periods of weakness. As I mentioned last week, the entry at 6600 may not have been made at the recent low, but it was still low enough to offer 800 (12%) profitable SPX points. That being said, there were some problems that developed this week, which followed concerns which I mentioned last week regarding my personal indicators–the Bullish Percentage SPX chart was in sell mode, the “Simple Chart” agreed, and the Advance/Decline…
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In my previous post of April 5, I noted that we were one step away from confirming the Volume Oscillator T which would extend until July 12. We received that confirmation on Monday April 6, when the VO and McOsci moved above their last peaks (prior to sinking below the zero line) and on Tuesday April 7 we opened at 6600. While that wasn’t the recent price low of 6316, it was a very safe entry into a very volatile market. We are now at 7398, and have captured 800 points…
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Let’s begin by acknowledging my viewpoint last weekend was incorrect. While my perspective was one where a Bear T was imminent, we actually had a strong rally to put that idea to rest last Monday. In fact, it has the potential at this point to lead to a Positive T until that same date, July 12. But it hasn’t fully developed yet. While we have an extreme bottom with the move above the zero line on both the McOsci and the Volume Oscillator, we are missing the final confirmation of higher…
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There’s an old joke that someone once asked Rodin how to sculpt an elephant, and his reply was “You take off everything that doesn’t look like an elephant.” That might be true, but life tells us something different. There are no two elephants that are exactly alike. The best we can hope to achieve is the outline of that universal elephant, with our own interpretation of reality. Would an elephant sculpted by Rodin be the same as one done by Dali? I’ll leave it to the reader to find images of…
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Let’s begin this week by reviewing the main premise of T-Theory–it is the search to find periods of significant “extra” strength in Price. These are relatively safe entry points for investing funds. As Terry Laundry put it himself in his 1997 paper on T-Theory: “It takes a special state of mind to “sign up” for a short boat trip, in a flimsy landing craft, to a beach completely controlled by hordes who have anticipated your arrival and have set up every imaginable way to do you in. Buying into major market…
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My last post was published October 18 of last year, a few days before the “Unnatural T” ended October 20. It ended with the SPX at 6735. For those who followed my postings on elliotwavetrader.net, we had a Price T that ended on December 12, at 6827. Depending on one’s point of view, either very little or very much has occurred since those two T’s ended. We now sit at 6840 on the SPX. On February 23, I posted the following chart which looked for a new Volume Oscillator T to…
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I’m sure that’s not a title you expected to see here. But there is an end, and it is coming on Monday. It is the end of what I need to call an “Unnatural T,” ending on October 20. I have not been invested in this T, as it never quite cleared the last hurdle to confirm it. A major confirmation of T creation occurs when the Right side of the Volume Oscillator (after bottoming below the zero line) moves higher than the last peak of the Left side of the…
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In my last post (September 7), I began by suggesting that those who were expecting the worst might be disappointed. The main gist of that post was that many indicators were neutral within the context of an up-trending market. While there have been no posts here since then, I posted on elliotwavetrader.net that I was looking lower for the week that just ended. That was the case, but the weekly movement lower was minimal. (On Thursday, I posted a chart at 6575 showing that we were only 12 points from hourly…
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It’s been a while since I’ve written a full post, and I know some who read these posts want the main question answered near the top of a post, rather than being forced to read this in its entirety. With that in mind, let me say perhaps expecting the worst is not the best course. Presently, most of the indicators I watch (that are not T-Theory related) are giving off neutral readings. For those who have access to my elliottwavetheory.net posts, my posts regarding support were on June 10 (regarding the…
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There was a movie released in 1976 called “The Marathon Man”, which had a scene where a diabolical dentist held a drill in the mouth of the protagonist, and asked “Is it safe?”. When he got an answer that he felt was untruthful, he drilled a hole in the hero’s tooth until he hit a root. The hero had no idea what the dentist was talking about, and tried to give the answer that he thought would stop the pain. Bonds The returns in the US bond market over the last…
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T-Theory Thoughts 