Yes, We Did Get the Expected Rally

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I pointed out last week that I thought the next move would be a rally that took us up to the descending trendline on the Marked Volume Oscillator chart, and that is what has occurred.

I haven’t yet removed the notation made last Monday showing that we reached the red trend line resistance level on the VO chart, even though the VO was adjusted to show that it has not yet broken above the downtrend line. While the VO shows that we made that move on Friday, in fact, the McClellan Oscillator itself has not broken through the downtrend line. And this is the case even though Price moved up 132 SPX points this week. Keep in mind that the VO is the MACD of the Advance/Decline volume. The McOsci gives you a more accurate end-of-day reading. It does have 3 days above the zero line, including the large intraday and closing moves this week.

It should be noted that resistance for Monday on both the Hourly and Weekly charts is 5148. On the Revised Bull Run chart, we closed precisely on the middle Keltner band, and RSI is almost exactly 50.

The “Simple” chart will either kiss or cross early this week, and the BPSPX is not near a buy on the Keltner bands, although it is above the traditional 50 bull level.

I am still looking at the formation as creating a Bear T, and at the moment I believe the justification for this may not be evident until mid-June. Of course, that depends on how Price and Volume act over the next 6 weeks. But..

Since the site’s inception, I’ve made about 200 posts. The first was January 19 2020, showing the end of a T, followed by a January 22 warning. Two years later, I posted in January that it was time to once again remove longs and go into hibernation. I would have to say that while I have had a conservative bent to my investing and trading I’ve done well, and I hope those who followed the ride did so as well. I hope you’ve learned that sometimes simple is better.

I intend to keep posting, but with travel and other personal issues, I’m taking some time off, with the intent to start up again some time in June. I will be keeping the chart notes updated sporadically. Till then,

Stay Safe

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6 thoughts on “Yes, We Did Get the Expected Rally”

  1. Very thoughtfull post. It will keep me questioning my positions. Always appreciated! Thank you again.

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  2. Bunker, as mentioned last week, I’ve been a long time reader but unfortunately (I blame it on my expertise with procrastination) didn’t invest nor trade much. Started recently. Over the years, your insights into market timing has been impeccable (esp for mid to long term investing)! Sincere thank you.

    Looking forward to reading your posts in a month or so. All the best!

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  3. thanks so much Bunker. Could you please clarify the third and fourth paragraph ? if 5148 is crossed is this bullish? Or you are saying it is around a price where we can expect a turn ? Thanks so much and have a great month

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    1. Crossing through resistance on Price would cause me to rethink my assumption that we will see a Bearish T. But that is in conjunction with the movement of the volume oscillator. I’m afraid that you will have to keep an eye on the live chart.

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