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There’s an old joke that someone once asked Rodin how to sculpt an elephant, and his reply was “You take off everything that doesn’t look like an elephant.” That might be true, but life tells us something different. There are no two elephants that are exactly alike. The best we can hope to achieve is the outline of that universal elephant, with our own interpretation of reality. Would an elephant sculpted by Rodin be the same as one done by Dali? I’ll leave it to the reader to find images of…
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Let’s begin this week by reviewing the main premise of T-Theory–it is the search to find periods of significant “extra” strength in Price. These are relatively safe entry points for investing funds. As Terry Laundry put it himself in his 1997 paper on T-Theory: “It takes a special state of mind to “sign up” for a short boat trip, in a flimsy landing craft, to a beach completely controlled by hordes who have anticipated your arrival and have set up every imaginable way to do you in. Buying into major market…
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My last post was published October 18 of last year, a few days before the “Unnatural T” ended October 20. It ended with the SPX at 6735. For those who followed my postings on elliotwavetrader.net, we had a Price T that ended on December 12, at 6827. Depending on one’s point of view, either very little or very much has occurred since those two T’s ended. We now sit at 6840 on the SPX. On February 23, I posted the following chart which looked for a new Volume Oscillator T to…
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I’m sure that’s not a title you expected to see here. But there is an end, and it is coming on Monday. It is the end of what I need to call an “Unnatural T,” ending on October 20. I have not been invested in this T, as it never quite cleared the last hurdle to confirm it. A major confirmation of T creation occurs when the Right side of the Volume Oscillator (after bottoming below the zero line) moves higher than the last peak of the Left side of the…
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In my last post (September 7), I began by suggesting that those who were expecting the worst might be disappointed. The main gist of that post was that many indicators were neutral within the context of an up-trending market. While there have been no posts here since then, I posted on elliotwavetrader.net that I was looking lower for the week that just ended. That was the case, but the weekly movement lower was minimal. (On Thursday, I posted a chart at 6575 showing that we were only 12 points from hourly…
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It’s been a while since I’ve written a full post, and I know some who read these posts want the main question answered near the top of a post, rather than being forced to read this in its entirety. With that in mind, let me say perhaps expecting the worst is not the best course. Presently, most of the indicators I watch (that are not T-Theory related) are giving off neutral readings. For those who have access to my elliottwavetheory.net posts, my posts regarding support were on June 10 (regarding the…
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There was a movie released in 1976 called “The Marathon Man”, which had a scene where a diabolical dentist held a drill in the mouth of the protagonist, and asked “Is it safe?”. When he got an answer that he felt was untruthful, he drilled a hole in the hero’s tooth until he hit a root. The hero had no idea what the dentist was talking about, and tried to give the answer that he thought would stop the pain. Bonds The returns in the US bond market over the last…
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I closed out my long trade based on T-Theory at 6013 on June 13, which was 2 weeks before the T was scheduled to end. Had I waited until June 24, I would have ended with Price at almost that level. But I had no angst regarding the 2% drop and recovery that followed. There are a few things that can happen at the end of a Magic T. With an end to strength, the market could fall precipitously (more likely at the end of a Bear T), The market can…
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People invest in equities for a variety of reasons. Capital appreciation, income, inflation protection–all are valid reasons to invest, but in my opinion the primary reason people who can afford to invest do so is because they are programmed to believe that this is a proper use of their resources. News events can cause people to react on different levels, but changing investment goals isn’t something that changes immediately for the retail investor. Investors don’t react to events, but rather to longer term trends. The difference between a trader and an…
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We’ve stayed in a quite tight range since my report of June 7. (Last week, I only offered a short update as I was only armed with my phone.) The June 7 report was posted after a close of 6000 on the SPX. Since then, we’ve remained within 1% of the close on June 6. That followed a May 25 report, where I noted how there might be a resting period after the sharp move in April, but how the T should continue on through June 24. We climbed another 250…
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T-Theory Thoughts 