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It’s been a while since I’ve written a full post, and I know some who read these posts want the main question answered near the top of a post, rather than being forced to read this in its entirety. With that in mind, let me say perhaps expecting the worst is not the best course. Presently, most of the indicators I watch (that are not T-Theory related) are giving off neutral readings. For those who have access to my elliottwavetheory.net posts, my posts regarding support were on June 10 (regarding the…
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There was a movie released in 1976 called “The Marathon Man”, which had a scene where a diabolical dentist held a drill in the mouth of the protagonist, and asked “Is it safe?”. When he got an answer that he felt was untruthful, he drilled a hole in the hero’s tooth until he hit a root. The hero had no idea what the dentist was talking about, and tried to give the answer that he thought would stop the pain. Bonds The returns in the US bond market over the last…
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I closed out my long trade based on T-Theory at 6013 on June 13, which was 2 weeks before the T was scheduled to end. Had I waited until June 24, I would have ended with Price at almost that level. But I had no angst regarding the 2% drop and recovery that followed. There are a few things that can happen at the end of a Magic T. With an end to strength, the market could fall precipitously (more likely at the end of a Bear T), The market can…
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People invest in equities for a variety of reasons. Capital appreciation, income, inflation protection–all are valid reasons to invest, but in my opinion the primary reason people who can afford to invest do so is because they are programmed to believe that this is a proper use of their resources. News events can cause people to react on different levels, but changing investment goals isn’t something that changes immediately for the retail investor. Investors don’t react to events, but rather to longer term trends. The difference between a trader and an…
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We’ve stayed in a quite tight range since my report of June 7. (Last week, I only offered a short update as I was only armed with my phone.) The June 7 report was posted after a close of 6000 on the SPX. Since then, we’ve remained within 1% of the close on June 6. That followed a May 25 report, where I noted how there might be a resting period after the sharp move in April, but how the T should continue on through June 24. We climbed another 250…
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While the Volume Oscillator T will continue through June 24, I advised those who are members of ellottwavetrader.net that I was closing my position when the market rebounded Friday to 6013, before it collapsed into the close. As I pointed out last week, my personal indicators suggested that there was a possibility that the T could end June 17. Since I’ve captured most of the advance since April 8, this wasn’t a difficult decision. I’m traveling right now and not able to create a full post.
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Doom sells papers. But sometimes things are just what they appear to be. In the present case, we are just on a roll that will eventually end, but using the existing rules of T-Theory as I understand them, we are in a bullish Volume Oscillator (VO) T that will last until June 24. Our T’s this year have been very clear on direction. A Bear T ends with a rally at its end, followed by a collapse. That is what occurred , and it was then followed by the present Bull…
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In last weekend’s update, I reviewed an early end to the Price T (which was due to end May 23) within the context of the larger Bullish Volume Oscillator T (that exists until June 24). I discussed my expectation for that early end to the Price T, based on technicals. We normally expect a return to the Volume Oscillator zero line on the right hand side of the T to occur much earlier than occurred in this instance. I believe that the Complex Bull Structure (shown with an orange circle) delayed…
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I’m back from my travels. One of the highlights of my trip included a visit to El Escorial, near Madrid, where I encountered the mural shown above in the Library. The door on the left is marked Falsitas, while the door on the right is marked Veritas. Which one will Zeno’s students walk through? The main reason for this site is to offer continued review and guidance based on the concepts created by Terry Laundry. To that end, let’s review the present state of the market through the prism of T-Theory.…
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It’s been about 5 months since I posted, and this long weekend gives me a chance to review where we are. It’s been quite a journey since the beginning of the year. On January 5, I posted (linked for those with an account at EWT) on elliottwavetrader.net a post called “Perspective is Everything”. In that post I discussed “Outlier Years”. We had just completed 2 strong years of a bull market with no end in sight based on the percentage increase for both 2023 and 2024. But just as I had…
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T-Theory Thoughts 