The End Is Near

I’m sure that’s not a title you expected to see here. But there is an end, and it is coming on Monday. It is the end of what I need to call an “Unnatural T,” ending on October 20. I have not been invested in this T, as it never quite cleared the last hurdle to confirm it. A major confirmation of T creation occurs when the Right side of the Volume Oscillator (after bottoming below the zero line) moves higher than the last peak of the Left side of the VO (before it moved below the zero line). We didn’t get there this time.

My personal take was that we had the potential to create a Bear T from this formation, but as I posted here on September 7, “expecting the worst is not the best course.” As we came closer to the end of this T–whatever it was going to become–my concerns through other charts grew, and as I pointed out on October 1 on elliottwavetrader.net, I took a short position in SPX. While that has been profitable, it really hasn’t obtained any traction. Here are the SPX charts from October 1 and today:

There is an hourly T that is set to end on Tuesday as well, though it is not drawn on the above chart.

With the end of the “Unnatural T” on Monday, I am watching for what could result in an end of strength. That being said, I have a very tight leash on this position should we move above 6725. The present hourly chart shows a neutral RSI, but MACD has just crossed positive.

The marked T-Theory Chart was really little changed yesterday, but the lower highs on the VO and McOsci are still holding below their trendlines.

The BPSPX has moved below the Keltner bands, where it could reverse and create a buy. However, it is doing so at the neutral 50 area. Traditional use of this chart shows that a reading above 50 is bullish, and below is bearish.

The Simple chart is showing decreasing PMO, with neutral breath and volume indicators.

The standard 55 Keltner and Bull Run 35 Keltner band look as follows, and give you support and resistance levels:

As my outlook now is based on my personal reading of the charts, rather than technical certainty, I leave you to make your own decisions on upcoming direction. Never trade someone else’s plan without understanding it. Especially when it comes from such irregularly timed postings as I am offering now. Personal matters are taking up more of my time.

Stay Safe.